Opening Salvos at Arrowhead

Dating back to ‘95, Kansas City is 21-7 (.750) at home during December. The Bills haven’t visited Arrowhead in the season’s final month since ‘83. Buffalo has lost seven of its last eight December contests with its lone win over that span coming by a 45-25 margin at Denver (12/21/08). The Chiefs are 26-12 (.684) against head coaches making their regular season debuts at Arrowhead since ‘94. Perry Fewell will make his Arrowhead debut as an NFL head coach on Sunday. The Chiefs are in the midst of three consecutive home games without a bye for the first time since ‘96.

Kansas City’s Defense Continues to Make Progress
The Chiefs currently rank eighth in the NFL, forcing three and outs on 25.7% (39 of 152) of opponents’ possessions. At the 12-game mark of the 2008 campaign, KC ranked 31st in that department, forcing them just 18.0% of the time (25 on 139 drives). The 2008 Chiefs also ranked 31st in the league on third down after 12 games, permitting opponents to convert at a 46.5% clip (73 of 157). KC is currently 16th in the league on third down at 37.5% (63 of 168).

Through 12 games in 2008, KC had allowed 163.7 rushing ypg and had given up 20 rushing TDs, a total that was exceeded only by Detroit (22). In 2009, KC has decreased that rushing average by 19.9 ypg and has permitted seven fewer rushing TDs. The Chiefs currently have 17.0 sacks after registering 10.0 during the entire 2008 campaign. Here is a look at the key areas of improvement.

Kansas City-Buffalo Scoring Stats to Consider
Dating back to ‘95, Kansas City is 56-11 (.836) at Arrowhead when holding opponents to 21 points or less. The Chiefs have held their opponents to 21 points or less in their last eight victories. The Bills have been held to 21 points or less in seven consecutive losses and are 2-14 (.125) in their last 16 contests when being held to 21 points or less. Buffalo is averaging 25.0 ppg in its four wins in 2009, but has scored just 12.5 ppg in its eight losses.

Buffalo scored 54 points in its last visit to Arrowhead (11/23/08), the most points ever relinquished in a game by the Chiefs. After permitting 31.3 ppg at home in 2008, the Chiefs are allowing 28.5 ppg at Arrowhead in 2009. Dating back to 2002, Buffalo has won 21 straight games when scoring 30 points or more, including a pair victories this season, but is just 2-21 (.087) when allowing 30 points or more. KC has lost 14 consecutive games dating back to 2007 when allowing 30 points or more. The Chiefs are seeking to top the 30-point barrier for the fi rst time since posting 31 points vs. Miami (12/21/08).

Chiefs-Bills Turnover Stats
The Chiefs are a combined +3 (7 takes/4 gives) in their three victories this season, going +2 in two of those three contests. Kansas City registered a season-high three takeaways in a 27-24 OT victory vs. Pittsburgh (11/22). The Chiefs are currently tied for 10th in the league, committing 18 turnovers. After allowing only 23 points off giveaways in the season’s first 10 games, Kansas City has permitted 45 points off gives the past two weeks.

The Bills have gone +11 (16 takes/5 gives) in their four wins, but are -9 (9 takes/18 gives) in their eight losses. Buffalo has four or more takeaways in three of those victories. The Bills were +5 (5 takes/0 gives) in a 54-31 victory at Arrowhead (11/23/08). Buffalo is 10-4 on the road with a positive turnover margin dating back to 2006, including seven straight wins. However, Buffalo is 2-24 (.077) with a negative turnover mark dating back to 2006, including a 1-12 (.177) record on the road. That lone win was a 13-10 victory at Miami (11/11/07) when the Bills were -1 (0 takes/1 give).

QB Matt Cassel in Crunch Time, Fourth-Quarter QB Stats
No NFL passer owns more fourth-quarter TDs than QB Matt Cassel (8). Cassel has averaged 6.71 yards per attempt and has compiled a 93.7 rating in the fourth quarter, his best totals in any period. It should come as no surprise that thanks to Cassel’s play the Chiefs have registered 84 fourth-quarter points, a figure that ties for seventh in the league. Cassel owns a 5-1 record as a starter when he posts a rating of 100.0 or better (min. 20 atts.). Cassel is 2-0 as a starter against the Bills, completing 28 of 40 passes (70.0%) for 312 yards, numbers that equate to a 92.9 rating.

The Chiefs will face a Buffalo squad that has permitted 112 points in the fourth quarter. Only Miami (134) has relinquished more fourth-quarter points in 2009, while only Miami (-57 points) and St. Louis (-47 points) have been outscored by a bigger margin in the final quarter than Buffalo (-45 points).

Charles in Charge, Chiefs-Bills Rushing Stats
Over the past four games, RB Jamaal Charles has averaged 182.5 combined net yards per game (rushing, receiving and returns) and has produced five TDs, including a 97-yard KO return TD vs. Pittsburgh (11/22). Charles owns at least one TD in four consecutive contests. In the season’s first eight games, KC averaged 3.6 yards per carry and didn’t register a rushing TD. In the last four games, KC has averaged 3.9 yards per carry and has three rushing TDs. Charles owns a pair of 100-yard rushing games and established a career high with 147 yards from scrimmage at San Diego (11/29).

The Chiefs will face a Buffalo defense that ranks 32nd in the league, permitting 172.1 rushing ypg. No team is allowing a higher yards per carry average than Buffalo (4.90), which has permitted a league-high eight 100-yard rushers this season. The Bills are 2-6 in those games. The Bills are also 32nd in the league, permitting 5.66 yards per rushing attempt on first down. Only Oakland (17) and St. Louis (17) have permitted more rushing TDs than Buffalo (16). Only Tampa Bay (17) has relinquished more runs of 20+ yards than Buffalo (16) and Oakland (16). Buffalo’s offense has averaged 135.5 rushing ypg with four rushing TDs in its four wins and has registered 91.5 rushing ypg and two rushing TDs in its eight losses. Here is a look at Charles’ totals and per-game averages over the last four games.

Owning a +10 TD-to-INT Differential is a Target For Success
Kansas City (+6), Seattle (+7), Houston (+8) and San Francisco (+9) are the only four teams with a +6 TD-to-INT differential that own losing records. A total of 10 teams own a +10 or better TD-to-INT ratios. Prior to MNF, those 10 clubs owned a combined 96-31 (.755) record, including seven of the eight teams that are currently leading their divisions. The only division leader not +10 or better in that department is Cincinnati (+6). Buffalo (-3) is one of nine teams that have a negative TD-to-INT ratio. Those nine squads are a combined 29-79 (.269).

Dating back to ‘95, KC is 34-4 (.895) when forcing two or more INTs at Arrowhead. The Bills have lost 16 consecutive games when throwing two or more INTs dating back to a 35-7 loss vs. New England (12/11/05). Buffalo is 0-4 in such games this season and is 1-22 (.043) on the road when throwing two or more INTs dating back to 2000.

Buffalo has gone 50 consecutive games without a 300-yard passer, the longest active drought in the NFL. The last Bills QB to register a 300-yard game was J.P. Losman, who threw for 340 yards in a 24-21 win at Houston (11/19/06). QB Matt Cassel owns three career 300-yard games and is seeking his fi rst in a KC uniform. Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 18 of 30 passes for 129 yards with no TDs and no INTs (70.0 rating) vs. the Chiefs at Cincinnati (12/28/08).

Close Calls, Halftime Stats
Two of KC’s three wins have come by seven points or less. The Chiefs have led at halftime in two of their three victories. Buffalo is 1-4 in games decided by seven points or less with that lone win coming by a 16-13 margin in OT at the N.Y. Jets (10/18). Four of Buffalo’s eight losses have come by a combined 13 points. The Chiefs and Bills both suffered three-point losses at Jacksonville this season. Dating back to 2008, Buffalo is 7-3 (.700) when tied or ahead at halftime, but is just 4-14 (.222) when trailing after two quarters. Buffalo has outscored its opponents by a 57-30 margin in the first quarter, but has been outscored by a 231-142 margin in the final three quarters this season.

Special Teams Superlatives, Strange Scheduling Quirks
No team has forced more punts that were downed, fair caught, out of bounds or returned for no gain or a loss than Kansas City (60). Only Oakland P Shane Lechler (8) has had more returners muff his punts than KC P Dustin Colquitt (5). The Chiefs are in the midst of three consecutive home games without a bye for the first time since ‘96. All three of Kansas City’s opponents during this current home stretch (Denver, Buffalo and Cleveland) are visiting Arrowhead following Thursday night games the previous week.

Final Statistical Tidbits on the Chiefs-Bills Matchup
Chiefs WR Chris Chambers caught a career-high 15 passes for 238 yards and a TD vs. Buffalo (12/4/05) as a member of the Dolphins … Buffalo hasn’t won three straight regular season contests vs. the Chiefs since ‘73-78 … The Bills haven’t won back-to-back games in KC since ‘83 and ‘86 … Buffalo went 4-0 vs. the AFC West in 2008 … The Bills have scored two TDs on INT returns, but have allowed three INT return TDs … No two teams have converted a lower percentage on third down than Buffalo (26.0%) and KC (24.0%) in 2009 … The Chiefs are tied for 14th in the NFL with a 51.9 Red Zone TD pct., while Buffalo is 31st at 33.3% ... KC (27:49) is 28th in time of possession, while Buffalo (26:32) is 32nd . . . No team allows more average rushes and completions per game than Buffalo (53.6) ... Buffalo ranks 10th in the NFL, averaging 24.0 yards per KO return. KC ranks 10th in the league, permitting just 21.6 yards per KO return.